Juniper Research has come out with a rather modest forecast for femtocell uptake – the analyst firm reckons there will be 15 million femtocells in use worldwide by 2012. If that forecast proves correct, it will be tough for femtocells to ever become mass-market – manufacturers will need a lot more scale than a few million shipments worldwide each year to drive down prices to a point that is attractive for most consumers.

Juniper foresees femtocells being integrated into WiFi routers so consumers will only need to buy one box. That makes sense, but again, these all-in-one devices, will have to be very competitively priced to persuade the many consumers who already have WiFi routers to go to the hassle and expense of installing a new one. And there is another obstacle: many fixed-line broadband providers now give their customers a free, but basic, WiFi router when they take out a subscription. Unless the broadband operator is also providing the customer with mobile service, there will be little incentive to bundle in a WiFi-femtocell combo-device.

From a consumer perspective, the case for femtocells rests largely on improving reception for mobile phone calls in their home or office. So, the femtocell’s fate may depend on how many people cancel their fixed-line phone service and take out a broadband-only subscription. But, in many markets, it can be tough to get fixed-line broadband without a phone service and many incumbent telecoms companies would probably like to keep it that way.

Moreover, some operators don’t want to sell femtocells on their coverage-benefits alone. Telstra’s CTO Hugh Bradlow told Total Telecom this week that his company would hold fire on femtocell technology until there are also femtocell-specific applications available. "You don't want to charge your customers for coverage," for fear of sending the message that the operator has failed to properly fulfil its role as network provider, he warned.

Got any ideas for femtocell-specific applications?